There's no escaping it. Week 10 was a nightmare outcome for the Road to 272 Bets. Missed field goals, failed two-point conversions, and special teams mishaps led to the worst week of the season. We ended with a 4-9-1 for -5.36 units.
All we can do is brush ourselves off and try our best to get back into the green in the coming weeks. The season-to-date record sits at 75-74-3 (-3.75 units)
Four teams are on BYE this week, which leaves us another 14-game slate to bet on.
If you want to listen to the audio version of this week's picks, including some more in-depth analysis, check out the latest episode of Bacon Bets wherever you get your podcasts.
As always, I'll follow the rules and guidelines that I laid out before the opening week. It's time to dive into my best bet for every single Week 10 game.
NFL Week 11 Bets for Every GameCommanders vs. Eagles Prediction
The Commanders are now seeing what happens when they have to play against playoff teams. Outside of their impressive Week 4 win against the Cardinals, the Commanders have struggled when having to face good football teams, losing to both the Ravens and Steelers. They benefited from an easy first half of their schedule, so I expect regression from them now that they have they have to play against the likes of the Eagles.
Washington's defense has struggled to stop the run all season, ranking 27th in opponent rush EPA and 25th in opponent rush success rate, while giving up 4.8 yards per rush. That's bad news for them considering they have to now face an Eagles offense that averages 4.9 yards per carry while ranking fifth in rush EPA.
Let's also consider the Eagles have had the best defense in the NFL since Week 5, leading the league in opponent EPA per play by a wide margin in that stretch.
The Eagles will show the football world they're the best team in the NFC East on Thursday night.
Colts vs. Jets Prediction
I can't get on board laying more than a field goal on the New York Jets, who seem to be imploding of late. The one aspect of the team you could lean on is their defense, but even that side of the football has been an issue for them since they moved on from Robert Saleh.
In their five games since firing Saleh, the Jets defense ranks dead last in opponent EPA per play and 25th in opponent success rate. To make matters worse, they're 30th in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate. Now, they have to take on a Colts team that averages 4.7 yards per carry behind one of the elite running backs in the NFL, Jonathan Taylor.
An aging quarterback, a toothless offense, and a defense that has completely lost its mojo doesn't sound like a team that should be a 3.5-point favorite. I'll back the Colts.
Ravens vs. Steelers Prediction
I might be a little late, but I'm buying in on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Russell Wilson ranks sixth in the NFL in EPA+CPOE composite after his first three starts so we clearly need to start evaluating him differently than we were when he was in Denver.
I can't emphasize enough how much of an issue the Ravens defense is They're now 27th in the NFL in opponent EPA per play and their abysmal secondary keeps their opponents in the game no matter how much of a lead their offense gives them.
I also have some concerns about the Ravens' discipline. They average 8.0 penalties per game, the second most in the league, and 68.3 penalty yards per game, which is the most. If you give the Steelers free yards, they're going to take advantage.
Finally, the Steelers have one of the most elite run defenses in the league and a big key to stopping the Ravens offense is slowing down their run game. If they can do that, the Steelers will be able to hang with Baltimore.
Vikings vs. Titans Prediction
My addiction to picking the Titans is a big reason I'm at where I'm at with my NFL betting record this season. Their underlying metrics simply don't add up to their results. They're 19th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at 0.0, the same mark as the Steelers and better than the likes of the Buccaneers and their defense continues to rank inside the top half of the league in virtually every area.
Despite that, they're 2-7 straight up and 1-8 against the spread. With that being said, I'm taking them with the points again against the Vikings.
There have been flashes of issues with the Vikings offense, including scoring just 12 points last week against the Jaguars defense, one of the worst in the NFL. Sam Darnold seems to be regressing and he's back to throwing mindless interceptions on a weekly basis. They're just 19th in EPA per play while averaging just 17.7 points over their last three games.
The Titans' defense has the ability to cause some issues for Darnold and company so I'll take the 6.5 points with Tennessee at home.
Browns vs. Saints Prediction
After the one strong performance by Jameis Winston, I believe the Browns are being a bit overvalued in the betting market. He showed in his second start against the Chargers that he's the same old Jameis but this time he has no offensive weapons to help him out.
The Saints of issues of their own, but they're riding the momentum of their interim head coach and they still have some offensive weapons, including Alvin Kamara. Derek Carr is certainly not an elite quarterback, but he's one I'm more willing to trust than Winston.
The Browns are also the worst team in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at -1.3. That number gets even worse on the road at -1.7. I'll take the Saints to record a second straight win.
Jaguars vs. Lions Prediction
It's a massive spread, the biggest of the NFL season, but I'm not afraid to back the Lions. Their team has been dominant all season long, on both sides of the football. They're now sixth in the league in EPA per play and third in opponent EPA per play. They have no weak point in all three aspects of the game and are built to roll over teams like the Jaguars.
Not only does Jacksonville have the worst defense in the NFL, ranking dead last in opponent EPA per play, but they were abysmal offensively with Mac Jones at quarterback. They averaged a measly 3.3 yards per play against the Vikings in Week 10.
As long as the Lions don't get in turnover trouble, they're going to run through the Jaguars at home.
Packers vs. Bears Prediction
I simply can't bet this Bears team right now. There's only one word to describe their offense; broken. They're averaging 3.7 yards per play and 9.0 points over their last three games. Whether it's coaching, play-calling, or quarterback play is up for debate, but the most likely answer is all three.
The Packers are fresh off their BYE week and enter Week 11 ranking fourth in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +0.8, well above the Bears who are second last at -1.1. Even a strong secondary isn't enough to save this Bears team.
I'll lay the points on the Packers in this NFC North duel.
Raiders vs. Dolphins Prediction
It may prove to be little too late for the Dolphins, but they looked to finally hit their stride for the first time this season on Monday night when they beat the Rams in convincing fashion. Now, they get to host one of the worst teams in the NFL in the Raiders in Week 11.
I'm going to fade the Raiders, who come into this game ranking dead last in EPA. I have no faith in their head coach, Antonio Pierce, who continually makes bad coaching decisions in every aspect, including personnel, game plan, and in-game decision-making. I can't imagine betting on this team or this offense against an offense as dynamic as what the Dolphins have to offer.
Rams vs. Patriots Prediction
The Patriots may have looked impressive in recent weeks, but let's remember the teams they faced; the Jets, Titans, and Bears. Now, they get to take on a much stronger team in the Rams, who have taken huge strides this season since their poor first few weeks.
Los Angeles is finally healthy and, despite the loss on Monday, looks like a much better team than its record indicates. It has some strong defensive play, especially from its pass rush, and I'm willing to bet on the Patriots struggling to move the ball against this unit.
I'll lay the 4.5 points on Los Angeles.
Falcons vs. Broncos Prediction
No one has bet on the Denver Broncos more than I have this season, but it's time for me to flip sides and take the Falcons. Some mixed results in the past few weeks have distracted people from the fact that the Falcons offense ranks third in EPA per play and second in offensive success rate, dating back to Week 5.
Yes, the Broncos' defense is elite, but the Falcons have too many weapons at different positions and can find their way to score points.
The biggest concern when it comes to betting on the Falcons is their defense, which has been a subpar unit this season, but one that continues to find ways to make halftime adjustments and come out strong from the locker room. In fact, they allow the ninth fewest second-half points per game at 9.1. They have faced plenty of strong offenses this season, but the Broncos won't be one of them.
The Falcons get back on track on Sunday.
Seahawks vs. 49ers Prediction
The 49ers have been one of the most frustrating teams to bet on this season. They largely dominate games, but mistakes in key moments have prevented them from covering spreads. Their game against the Buccaneers was a perfect example of that. They outgained Tampa Bay 6.8 yards per play to 3.7, but three missed field goals by Jake Moody and a -1 turnover differential caused them to win by just three points in a game they deserved to win by double-digits.
More often than not, those things right themselves and a team like the 49ers will start to win games with margin. That's what I expect to happen in this game. With Christian McCaffrey back in the lineup, the 49ers are once again going to be a tough team for anyone to face. Their +1.4 Net Yards per Play is second to only the Ravens and the Seahawks come in at 14th in that stat.
The 49ers outgained the Seahawks 7.9 yards per play to 4.9 yards per play back in Week 6 and I expect a similar result in the rematch.
Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction
I'm done trying to big-brain games involving the Chiefs. I've been the guy who time and time again has bet against the Chiefs in big games. I cite metrics, advanced analytics, and other variables, convinced the Chiefs aren't as good as their opponent. Then I live to regret that almost every single time. I'm done making that mistake.
I don't know if it's voodoo or some type of clutch gene that belongs only to the likes of Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes, but a 12-1-1 career spread record as an underdog speaks for itself. I will take the points with the Chiefs in the latest edition of a Josh Allen vs. Mahomes showdown.
Bengals vs. Chargers Prediction
The Chargers play an old-school style of football where they take care of the ball, play strong defense, and squeak out victories. That style will work against inferior opponents, but the fact they're 0-2 against teams who currently rank inside the top 10 in EPA per play speaks for itself. When they play a strong offense, they tend to get overpowered.
That's what I expect to happen in this one. The Bengals pass-attack is one of the best in the NFL and the Chargers may quickly find themselves in a negative game script, down early. If that happens, Los Angeles will have to abandon their usual style of play and try to play from behind, something they're not built to do.
I'll back the Bengals as slight road underdogs to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Texans vs. Cowboys Prediction
I would love to know why anyone would bet on the Cowboys in this situation outside of trying to big-brain this game. They now rank 29th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play (-0.9) and with Dak Prescott out, they gained a pathetic 2.6 yards per play against the Eagles last week. They can't play offense, they can't play defense, and their head coach has lost their locker room.
The Texans' defense is underrated, ranking eighth in opponent EPA per play and third in opponent success rate. There have been some concerns about their offense but if Nico Collins can return to their lineup, he's going to provide them a much-needed boost.
I'll lay the touchdown worth of points with Houston in the battle of Texas on Monday night.
