Conference play continues to ramp up across the nation and with that comes high-leverage matchups, including Georgia vs. Alabama, but also some key tests.
Oregon will come out of its BYE week to start Big Ten play against UCLA while Miami will open league play against Virginia Tech. There are plenty of high-leverage matchups, get the picks against the spread for every game featuring a top-25 team.
Virginia Tech vs. Miami (Florida) Prediction and Pick
Pick: Virginia Tech (+19)
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State Prediction and Pick
Pick: Oklahoma State (+5)
Kentucky vs. Ole Miss Prediction and Pick
Pick: Ole Miss (-17.5)
I struggle to see Kentucky keeping up with this frenetic Ole Miss offense that has scored 40 points or more in its first four games.
While the Rebels haven’t faced an SEC-caliber defense to date, I don’t trust that the Wildcats have the offensive firepower to keep pace with Lane Kiffin’s group of skill position players that is buoyed by a Heisman Trophy contender in Jaxson Dart.
Kentucky’s issues on offense stem from its inability to give Vandagriff time. The offensive line is currently 122n in pass blocking, per Pro Football Focus, and is 10th in EPA/Play.
This is an Ole Miss defense that has a potent pass rush, tops in the nation so far this season, per PFF, and an offense that is hunting big plays often, averaging nearly nine yards per play, the highest mark in the country.
BYU vs. Baylor Prediction and Pick
Pick: Baylor (-3)
Minnesota vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick
Pick: Michigan (-9)
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Pick
Pick: Arkansas (+4)
Oklahoma vs. Auburn Prediction and Pick
Pick: Oklahoma (-2)
Wisconsin vs. USC Prediction and Pick
Pick: Wisconsin (+15)
Louisville vs. Notre Dame Prediction and Pick
Pick: Louisville (+6)
Mississippi State vs. Texas Prediction and Pick
Pick: Texas (-38.5)
Iowa State vs. Houston Prediction and Pick
Pick: Iowa State (-13.5)
Stanford vs. Clemson Prediction and Pick
Pick: Stanford (+22)
Ohio State vs. Michigan State Prediction and Pick
Pick: Ohio State (-23.5)
This is a great set up for Ohio State, who is rightfully a massive favorite on the road against the Spartans.
Michigan State has been banged up across the offensive line and at wide receiver over the last two weeks and is up against it facing arguably the best team in the country in Ohio State, who ranks No. 1 in net EPA/Play.
Spartans’ quarterback Aidan Chiles is incredibly talented but doesn’t have the necessary blocking to hold up against the vaunted Buckeyes defense. Chiles also has made suspect decisions on the field, making six big-time throws to 11 turnover-worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus.
OSU will feast on those mistakes and cover with ease.
Illinois vs. Penn State Prediction and Pick
Pick: Penn State (-17.5)
Georgia vs. Alabama Prediction and Pick
Pick: Georgia (-2)
Washington State vs. Boise State Prediction and Pick
Pick: Washington State (+7.5)
There will likely be fireworks in this game with a high total and two teams that can move the ball explosively on offense and also are struggling to get stops on the other side of the ball.
Each team has an offense that ranks top 20 in EPA/Play, but a defense that is outside the top 80 in EPA/Play. The Broncos defense has been particularly poor to start the season, 125th in EPA/Play.
It’s tough to trust the Broncos to completely shut down this Washington State offense that can spread out the secondary and use Mateer both as a rusher and a passer. While the Broncos bolster a rest advantage, Washington State did get an extra day to prepare for this one after playing on Friday night.
While the Cougs had to rally to win that one, the team had a post-game win expectancy at nearly 70% and out-gained San Jose State by nearly 200 yards in the overtime victory.
Boise State’s offense can run the ball fairly easily against the Cougs' defense that is outside the top 100 in yards per carry allowed, which could lead to an over bet, but I believe that getting over a touchdown with this Wazzu team is the best play.
Boise State hasn’t proven it can shut down an FBS-level offense, allowing 37 points to Oregon and 45 to Georgia Southern. This will be a different environment on the ‘Smurf Turf,’ but I will trust the Cougars to do their part on offense to cover the spread.
Arizona vs. Utah Prediction and Pick
Pick: Utah (-11)
Oregon vs. UCLA Prediction and Pick
Pick: Oregon (-24)
The Ducks come out of a BYE week to start Big Ten play against a struggling UCLA team that is in a brutal travel spot, coming from LSU to face an even better team in the Ducks.
Oregon's offense has been elite despite being underwhelming, 16th in EPA/Play, and averaging nearly 37 points per game. Meanwhile, UCLA is 116th in EPA/Play on offense and won't have the firepower to keep up with a well-rested Ducks team.
