We are one round down and move ever closer to a historic National Championship.
It’s the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff, which will span two days with winners of each neutral site game moving on to the CFP semifinals. With a rematch between the likes of Oregon and Ohio State and long-suffering teams like Texas and Penn State laying double digits, there’s plenty of insight to be gleaned in this round.
Here are several keys to each game, including how teams matchup against one another as well as a handful of bets.
It’s a CFP version of Reed ‘Em and Weep.
Penn State vs. Boise State Betting Notes The Boise State offense is going to be up against it facing the Penn State defensive line that ranks in the top 10 in major rush-stopping categories including defensive line yards, EPA/Rush, and yards per carry. The Broncos offense revolves around Asthon Jeanty, who averages 26 carries and 192 yards per game. However, the team’s ability to lean on Jeanty has masked the limited passing game the group has to offer. Maddux Madsen has put together an impressive stat line this season, but digging under the hood shows that he has benefited from playing alongside Jeanty and in favorable situations. While he has 22 touchdown passes to only three interceptions, Madsen has made only nine big-time throws to 16 turnover-worthy plays. Of course, having the best running back in college football has made life easier for the QB.Given that the Penn State defensive line should be able to keep a lid on Jeanty more than other teams have, there may be more on Madsen’s plate in this game. However, Madsen has struggled under pressure this season, making only one big-time throw to eight turnover-worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus. To me, Boise State’s defense needs to stand tall in this one. The Broncos' defense has been boom or bust all season. The team ranks second in the country in sacks, but the group has been vulnerable to big plays, outside the top 90 in explosive play rate. Most importantly, the group has struggled against the pass, ranking outside the top half of the country in EPA/Pass. While Penn State is centered around its dual-threat run game between Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, I believe that this game should set up nicely for Allar to have a big game through the air. The Nittany Lions are a top 10 in EPA/Pass and sacks allowed, so the group should be well-equipped to handle Boise State’s defensive line and set up opportunities down the field for Allar and Co.One player prop I'm eyeing is Harrison Wallace, who is lined in the low 40s again. However, Wallace is the clear second option to Tyler Warren in the Penn State passing game. Even in a favorable game script, Wallace got eight targets against SMU. Overall, he has gone over this mark in every game since Week 5.However, Penn State has proven confident in its defense and content to limit its opponents and lean on its ground game, especially in a favorable game state.What I find interesting looking at the first-round romp of SMU was that Penn State’s offense wasn’t firing on all cylinders. Before two interceptions that went the other way for Nittany Lions touchdowns, the Penn State offense struggled to finish drives and used a big effort from the defense to lean on the Mustangs en route to victory. Overall, PSU only had a below-national average mark of about five yards per play. Boise State ranks 95th in seconds per play and Penn State is 105th, so there may be limited snaps in this one especially given that each team wants to lean on its run game. Further, given the tough matchup for the Boise State offense, I believe we are primed for a defensive-minded Penn State victory. Ultimately, I think this game looks a bit clunky and there are few sustained drives, especially early. I believe Penn State can scheme up answers as Madsen’s struggles are magnified, but the under is my preference in this one. Texas vs. Arizona State Betting NotesThe biggest favorite of the quarterfinals, Texas will look to use its talent edge to get past Arizona State. There are some big differences between the two teams that should give Texas a clean victory, but this is a well-oiled machine in Arizona State, led by coach Kenny Dillingham. Of course, this is a big step up in class and ASU won’t have Jordyn Tyson for this one. However, the team still scored more than 40 points against Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship Game without Tyson. I believe we see Arizona State show some life early in this one. We saw Clemson put together a strong opening script in the first round and I believe that with extra rest ASU can show life early with the ability to use Leavitt in the quarterback run game and the bruising Cam Skattebo early. The Texas defense was vulnerable against Clemson at times as the team failed to completely shut down the Tigers' offense for a full 60 minutes after settling in, and I do think we see Arizona State put points on the board, but it's the other side of the ball that may ruin the team’s chances of making the semifinals. Texas torched Clemson on the ground in the first round, but I envision less success in this one. Clemson was outside the top 100 in EPA/Rush while Arizona State is inside the top 20 in the same metric. I expect Quinn Ewers to have plenty of time to operate in this one, the Arizona State pass rush ranks 132nd in the country in Pro Football Focus’ grading. While the Texas signal-caller has been prone to turnovers, he has completed 70% of his dropbacks when not under pressure with 23 touchdowns on 73% of his dropbacks. With time, look for Texas to test the Arizona State secondary that rates out around the national average in EPA/Pass and has been vulnerable against the better passing games it has faced this season. The team has faced five teams inside the top 50 in EPA/Pass, and allowed at least 23 points in four of those games – Texas State (28 points), Texas Tech (30), Kansas (31), Kansas State (14) and BYU (23). Of course, Texas is the best of this bunch and can really stress the ASU defense. Look for a big game from Matthew Golden, who remains the most reliable wide receiver in the Texas pass-catching group and a vertical threat, averaging nearly two yards per route run as Isaiah Bond continues to deal with injuries. The key here will be can ASU stop the Longhorns in the red zone? The Sun Devils are outside the top 100 in red zone touchdown percentage allowed, something the Longhorns have struggled with at times during the Ewers' era but excelled for the most part against Clemson.If Texas is converting in close, Arizona State will struggle to keep up, but my favorite look in this game is to pounce early on a sound opening script from the Sun Devils and Texas’ overall talent edge. Ohio State vs. Oregon Betting NotesA rematch from the thriller in Eugene back in Week 7. The Buckeyes offense will look slightly different in this matchup, more short-handed on the offensive line as injuries continue to mount, but I still believe the Buckeyes will have answers for the Ducks' sturdy defense. Oregon’s defense struggles to contain the run, evident in games against Boise State and Penn State, and that can open up downfield pass attempts for the Buckeyes offense. The Ducks defensive line is a middling rush-stopping unit, ranked outside the top 80 in defensive line yards and 63rd in EPA/Rush. While a disciplined defense that limits explosive run plays, the Buckeyes should be able to keep the ball on the ground reliably. In the first meeting, Ohio State averaged nearly six yards per rush. I think TreVeyon Henderson will continue to come on strong in the postseason, evident in his first-round domination of Tennessee, who had 134 yards on 14 touches. Despite the timeshare, he is the player I prefer to target in player props for the Ohio State backfield over Quinshon Judkins. The Buckeyes unleashed its passing attack against Tennessee, and while I imagine the Ducks will have a far better game plan, there are simply too many weapons for the Ohio State offense to target when the group is pushing the ball down the field. In the first meeting, Ohio State averaged nearly 10 yards per dropback as each offense was aggressive on the opposing offense. Speaking of, in the first meeting, the Buckeyes struggled to match the Ducks offense, who opened up the playbook and torched the Ohio State secondary, averaging more than 10 yards per dropback and a 92nd percentile EPA/Dropback mark when compared to games last season. The Ducks offense will be equipped to handle the Buckeyes, who ultimately haven’t faced teams with the type of speed Oregon has. There were only four tackles for loss combined in the first meeting as I expect offenses to rule the day in the Rose Bowl, making for a high-scoring back-and-forth matchup. Look for the offensive skill position players to shine and for this game to likely be decided on fourth-down decision-making and if teams can convert scoring chances into touchdowns. This total is up about three points since the first meeting, and while there may be concern for the Ohio State offensive line, I believe we see another high-scoring matchup and prefer the over. In a coin-flip matchup, I’m inclined to take the points as well with the better quarterback in Gabriel. I like the Ducks win another banger against the Buckeyes. Notre Dame vs. Georgia Betting NotesLowest total of the quarterfinals and rightfully so with two defensive-minded approaches.While the Fighting Irish were able to shut down Indiana, the team won’t enjoy the size advantage in the trenches against the Bulldogs, who will be the best defensive line the team has seen this season. Notre Dame was able to get past a loaded Texas A&M defensive line in the opening game of the season, but this will be far and away the most talented roster the Fighting Irish have seen and, for the first time this season, be outmatched athletically. While there is much to be made about the loss of Georgia quarterback Carson Beck who underwent elbow surgery for an injury he suffered in the SEC Championship Game, I’d argue not to overreact and that the drop-off isn’t that much.Beck is most certainly the better player, but I don’t believe the Bulldogs offense was best suited for him with a lackluster group of pass-catchers. With Stockton in, and a ton more time to prepare for the backup, the Bulldogs can lean on its size advantage in the trenches and run on a Notre Dame defense that lost starting defensive tackle Rylie Mills to a knee injury in the Indiana game. Look for Trevor Etienne to have a big day on the ground in a run-first game script that will go against a Fighting Irish defense that is 36th in rush defense grading according to PFF despite an easy schedule all season. On top of that, Marcus Freeman’s group is a pedestrian 46th in EPA/Rush.It’s worth noting that Georgia has struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks all season, namely Jalen Milroe (116 yards), Jaxson Dart (50 yards), and Haynes King (110 yards), and Riley Leonard fits a similar mold as someone capable of taking over games with his legs. However, the Fighting Irish will be up against it facing the Bulldogs defense that has seen a (current Notre Dame offensive coordinator) Mike Denbrock offense before back with LSU in the 2022 SEC Championship Game, allowing only 47 rushing yards in a 50-30 victory. The score won't show it, but the Fighting Irish struggled to move the ball against Indiana. Outside of a 98-yard touchdown run from Jeremiyah Love, the Irish averaged about four yards per snap. Of course, the game script was favorable, but this was not the dominant offensive showing that many made the game out to be. Meanwhile, I believe the Bulldogs can use the extra week of prep to acclimate Stockton into the role of QB1 and the team can craft a gameplan that can test a Notre Dame defense that has faced a limited group of offenses to date. Give me the better coaching staff to prepare for this one and shut down a fairly limited Notre Dame offense and shut down Leonard’s legs en route to a low-scoring victory.
