The Baltimore Ravens are a good team. But, they missed their window to become a great one.
On Tuesday, the NFL trade deadline came and went. The Ravens, who the prior week had acquired receiver Diontae Johnson from the Carolina Panthers, stood pat save for a future, late-round pick swap to acquire veteran corner Tre’Davious White. In short, nothing major was accomplished on defense.
And based on what we’ve seen from the Ravens, that could prove to be a huge error.
On Thursday night, Baltimore was once again lit up by an opponent’s passing game and narrowly managed to eke out a 35–34 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals. Joe Burrow threw for 428 yards and four touchdowns despite being without Tee Higgins. Although Ja’Marr Chase was the lone weapon to truly worry about, he still had an absurd 11 receptions for 264 yards, highlighted by 70- and 67-yard touchdowns.
With All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton’s ankle injury, and the unknown severity of it, things might get worse still.
In 10 games this season, the Ravens have surrendered 294.9 passing yards per game, easily the worst mark of any team. How bad is that figure? Consider the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore’s target in the AFC, are permitting 293.6 total yards per game. The Ravens have allowed at least 300 yards passing in half of those contests, including to Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston, Dak Prescott and Burrow twice.
For much of the year, the talk has been about the dynamic duo of quarterback Lamar Jackson and running back Derrick Henry. Both are in the MVP conversation, with Henry having a legitimate shot at 2,000 yards rushing while Jackson is on pace for his first 4,000-yard passing campaign. No team has a scarier backfield, and they’re joined by receiver Zay Flowers who has become one of the league’s most dangerous wideouts.
All told, the Ravens entered Week 10 with the NFL’s top-ranked offense in terms of yards (445.6) and second in points (31.4) per game. They’ve been a juggernaut, scoring 30 or more points five times.
Baltimore also has the best run defense in the sport, allowing a meager 75.7 rushing yards per game on 3.4 yards per carry.
And, yet, none of it will matter come January if the pass defense doesn’t get fixed.
In the AFC, the Ravens won’t be able to avoid great quarterbacks. There’s a real chance a path to the Super Bowl includes a combination of Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, C.J. Stroud, Justin Herbert and/or Burrow. Good luck navigating that with a secondary that has been routinely torched.
And if Baltimore falls behind by a few scores in the playoffs, the ability to run the ball means far less. Suddenly, Henry’s impact is muted and Jackson is left to throw to Flowers and a litany of lesser-talented weapons. And while Flowers is great, teams in the postseason will have more answers, and rosters capable of limiting his numbers while playing straight up elsewhere.
For the Ravens, this is an issue they’ve faced at times in recent years. Since Jackson became the starting quarterback in 2019, Baltimore has ranked fifth, sixth, sixth, 32nd, 26th and sixth, respectively. In those two down years, the Ravens missed the playoffs and lost in the wild-card round, albeit with the caveat that Jackson also got injured down the stretch both times. But in each case, the Ravens weren’t an elite contender, not on the level of the Buffalo Bills, Bengals and Chiefs.
Over the past 10 years, here’s the rankings of each Super Bowl champion by total passing yards and yards per attempt against:
2014: New England Patriots: 17th, 15th2015: Denver Broncos: 1st, 2nd2016: New England Patriots: 12th, 8th2017: Philadelphia Eagles: 17th, 3rd2018: New England Patriots: 22nd, 5th2019: Kansas City Chiefs: 8th, 6th2020: Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 21st, 11th2021: Los Angeles Rams: 22nd, 23rd2022: Kansas City Chiefs: 18th, 6th2023: Kansas City Chiefs: 4th, 3rd
Baltimore currently ranks 32nd and 22nd, which would easily be the worst combination of those metrics for a team to hoist a Lombardi Trophy.
Down the stretch, it won’t be easy improving those numbers. The Ravens will face the Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans, along with the potentially revitalized Russell Wilson twice with two games against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
We’ve also seen this movie before.
Last season, the Ravens put up metrics suggesting they were one of the greatest teams of all time. They ran for an NFL-best 2,661 yards in the regular season.
Then, at home in the AFC title game against Kansas City, the Chiefs led throughout and stacked the box. Baltimore abandoned the run and Jackson went 20-of-37 for 272 yards with a touchdown and an interception despite similar weapons to the current edition.
Baltimore is 7–3, and a great bet to ultimately wrestle the AFC North away from the Steelers and host at least one playoff game if not more.
But in the playoffs, opponents will throw for days. And Baltimore will have no answer, likely wishing it had added a key defensive piece back in November.
